Headlines vs. Hard Data

David Halseth
Jun 28
2 min read

For the week ended 6/27/26.

If you consumed financial news last week, you probably came away convinced the world was teetering on the edge of another crisis. Oil. Tariffs. AI. Private credit. Supply chains. Take your pick – there was no shortage of reasons to worry.

And yet, one of the week's most important economic developments barely registered. First-quarter U.S. GDP was quietly revised upward from an annualized 1.9% to 2.1%. Apparently, good news just doesn't generate the same number of clicks as geopolitical drama. Imagine that.

Speaking of drama, oil prices have now nearly completed a full round trip. Just eleven days after President Trump negotiated a 60-day agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has fallen back to roughly where it traded before the conflict began. That's a welcome development for consumers, businesses, and anyone who has recently filled up a gas tank. Of course, energy analysts caution that global inventories remain tight, meaning this story may not be finished just yet. When has the Middle East ever offered us a tidy ending?

Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels found a new reason to argue after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on European countries that impose digital services taxes on U.S. technology companies. Whether those tariffs ever materialize remains uncertain, but one thing is certain: markets dislike uncertainty almost as much as economists dislike making definitive forecasts.

Speaking of markets, investors finally took a breather. The S&P 500 slipped just under 2.0% last week, its first five-day losing streak since April 2024. Foreign equities declined an even steeper 2.6%, although they continue to outperform domestic markets with a healthy 12.6% gain year-to-date. And in a nostalgic twist, bonds actually behaved like...well...bonds, rising 0.5% as investors sought a bit of shelter. Before the bond bulls start celebrating, however, remember they're still up only about 1.0% for the year. With inflation running well above that pace, purchasing power remains headed in the wrong direction.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar shifts back into focus after last week's barrage of geopolitical headlines. Wednesday brings June's Consumer Confidence report, where economists expect Americans to be just a bit more optimistic than they were in May. Then, on Thursday, all eyes turn to the June employment report, with the consensus calling for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%.

As always, I'll be paying far more attention to these releases than to the latest rumor crossing the newswire. Headlines may dominate the conversation for a day or two, but consumer confidence and the labor market tell us far more about where the economy – and ultimately the markets – are headed.

With Independence Day just around the corner, Monday Morning Musings will be taking a brief holiday next week. I hope you have a wonderful Fourth of July filled with family, friends, and perhaps a little less market watching than usual.

Until then, enjoy the summer, your favorite cold brew, and remember: headlines move markets for a day, but fundamentals drive them for years.

Happy Fourth of July, and I'll see you the following Monday.

Good morning.