For the week ended 8/8/26. By David Halseth The July employment report delivered a genuine surprise – and not the pleasant kind. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs last month, badly missing economists’ forecast for an 83,000 gain. As if that weren’t enough, May and June payroll growth was revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. When economists miss, they occasionally miss with enthusiasm. Oddly, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. Before celebrating, underst

For the week ended 8/1/26. By David Halseth Artificial intelligence may be reshaping the economy, but in the second quarter, it also performed a rather convincing disappearing act on GDP. The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter and below economists’ expectations of 1.8%. A major culprit was surging imports – particularly semiconductors and other components needed to fuel the AI build-out. Imports are subtracted when calculating

For the week ended 7/25/26. By David Halseth Well, that tariff respite was enjoyable while it lasted. After peaking near 30% in April 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate had retreated to roughly 10.7% by the end of this year’s second quarter. Markets could finally breathe again – or so they thought. When the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s primary tariff authority in February, many assumed the trade war would become less capricious and more constrained. Presiden

For week ended 7/18/26. By David Halseth Before getting to inflation, oil prices and the latest AI-induced market indigestion, congratulations to Spain – the 2026 World Cup champions after a 1–0 extra-time victory over Argentina. At least someone finished the weekend at an all-time high. Slumping chipmakers, renewed fighting in the Middle East, stubborn inflation and the increasingly plausible prospect of interest-rate hikes – investors had plenty to digest last week, and ver

For the week ended 7/11/26. The University of Michigan found itself defending its closely watched consumer sentiment index last week against critics who argue recent methodology changes are making Americans appear more miserable than they really are. The survey shifted from cellphone interviews to primarily web-based responses in 2024, prompting claims that the new format is skewing results downward. Survey director Joanne Hsu pushed back, arguing that the weakness reflects a

For the week ended 6/27/26. If you consumed financial news last week, you probably came away convinced the world was teetering on the edge of another crisis. Oil. Tariffs. AI. Private credit. Supply chains. Take your pick – there was no shortage of reasons to worry. And yet, one of the week's most important economic developments barely registered. First-quarter U.S. GDP was quietly revised upward from an annualized 1.9% to 2.1%. Apparently, good news just doesn't generate the

For the week ended 6/20/26. If you listened to Wall Street six months ago, the debate centered on how many interest-rate cuts the Federal Reserve would deliver in 2026. Fast forward to last week's FOMC meeting and the conversation has changed dramatically. Instead of asking when rates will fall, investors are now quietly asking whether the Fed's next move might actually be...up. The Federal Reserve unanimously held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real story

For the week ended 6/13/26. Wall Street has developed a remarkable superpower lately: ignoring bad news. Last week delivered another reminder. Consumer inflation climbed to 4.2% in May, the highest annual reading in three years, as higher energy prices stemming from the now-apparently-concluding Iran conflict worked their way through the economy. Producer prices weren't much better, rising at a 6.5% annual pace, their fastest increase since 2022. Under normal circumstances, h

For the week ended 6/6/26. A funny thing happened on the way to the recession. The U.S. labor market decided not to participate - last week’s employment report came in significantly stronger than expected, adding 172,000 jobs in May versus expectations for only 80,000. Even more impressive, revisions added another 93,000 jobs to March and April payrolls. Combined, the economy has now averaged a robust 188,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, the strongest pace i

For the week ended 5/30/26. Last week delivered another reminder that the U.S. economy is rarely as simple as the headlines suggest. Let's start with the less exciting news. The Commerce Department revised first-quarter GDP growth down to 1.6% from the initial estimate of 2.0%. The primary culprits? Lower consumer spending and weaker inventory investment. In other words, consumers appear to be easing off the accelerator after years of spending money like a teenager with their

For the week ended 5/16/26. Well, so much for the “inflation is under control” narrative. April’s CPI report reminded everyone that inflation, much like a bad horror movie villain, has a nasty habit of reappearing when you least want it to. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, hotter than both March’s 3.3% reading and economists’ expectations of 3.7%. Core inflation – the Fed’s preferred “please ignore food and energy because they’re inconvenient” measure – also

For the week ended 5/9/26. The U.S. labor market once again managed to surprise the “experts” which, at this point, may be the most reliable economic indicator we have. In April, the economy added 115,000 jobs, comfortably ahead of expectations for just 55,000. Yes, job growth slowed from March’s 185,000 pace, but considering the backdrop of the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, the labor market continues to show remarkable resilience. The unemployment rate held steady

For the week ended 3/2/26. Some interesting data points rolled in last week, so let’s skip the warm-up lap and get right to it. First and foremost, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) extended its interest-rate pause, but not without some unusually public disagreement. Several committee members are no longer casually hinting at future rate cuts – in fact, a growing minority now believes rate hikes may become more likely as we move deeper into 2026. That’s quite the backd

For the week ended 4/25/26. The best news from last week had nothing to do with markets – and everything to do with them. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closing the inquiry and a federal judge noting there was “essentially zero evidence” of wrongdoing. Translation: a lot of noise, very little signal. So why bring this up in a market note? Because Fed independence isn’t some academic concept – i

For the week ended 4/18/26. One has to admit – it’s becoming increasingly difficult to talk about what’s driving the economy and markets when, over the past year or so, the answer has largely been… headlines out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. PMI data? Background noise. Retail sales? Afterthought. Consumer confidence? Barely gets an invite to the party. Nothing illustrates this better than GDP. Q4 growth has now been revised twice – from an already uninspiring 1.4% down to less

For the week ended 4/11/26. Welcome to the midpoint of April and just hours away from everyone’s favorite deadline: taxes. In the spirit of joy and government-mandated generosity, let me throw a bit of cold water on the festivities and turn to the latest inflation data. Consumer prices heated up in March, driven largely by a sharp jump in energy costs. The Labor Department reported that CPI rose 3.3% from a year earlier, a notable increase from February’s 2.4% and the hottest

For the week ended 4/4/26. In a world that seems determined to serve up bad news on a loop, let’s start with something refreshing: jobs – lots of them. U.S. job growth didn’t just beat expectations last month, it ran them over. Employers added 178,000 positions, the strongest showing in over a year and a sharp reversal from February’s downwardly revised loss of 133,000. And the economists? They were looking for roughly 59,000. At this point, calling it the “dismal science” fe

For the week ended 3/21/26. And no, I’m not talking about your March Madness bracket getting torched by Thursday afternoon – I’m referring to the steady drip of losses across the markets. At this point, public market diversification feels less like a strategy and more like group therapy. Before we get to that, let’s start with the Federal Reserve. As expected, the Fed held rates steady last week. No surprises – but the tone mattered. Powell made it clear they’re in no rush to

For the week ended 3/14/26. Okay, things are starting to get more interesting. And by that I’m (unfortunately) not referring to March Madness brackets, but rather to a couple of economic data points released last week that may give our friends at the Federal Open Market Committee a bit of heartburn. First up – and something that largely escaped the attention of the mainstream press – was the second revision of fourth-quarter GDP, which showed the economy was significantly wea

For the week ended 3/7/26. Well, good morning and welcome to the first full week of market activity while the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. While this has obviously had a major impact on oil prices, we’ll get to that in a moment. First, let’s take a look at the latest jobs data – and it was a doozy. Bottom line: the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, an unexpected and fairly widespread downturn for a labor market that has been showing signs of str