For the week ended 11/29/2025. With the shutdown now fading into the rearview mirror, the promised “flood” of economic data has turned out to be more of a garden hose with air pockets. It spurts… then stops… then spurts again. GDP? Ghosted. Inflation? Still hiding somewhere deep in the BLS server room, presumably next to Jimmy Hoffa. The one scrap of data we did  get was November Consumer Confidence, and – shocker – Americans are grumpy. The index slid to 88.7, below expectat

For week ended 11/22/25. With the federal government back from its unplanned vacation, the data spigot has been turned on full blast. Case in point: the September unemployment rate finally hit the tapes, clocking in at 4.4%. That’s up from 4.3%… which was up from 4.2%… which was up from 4.1%. You get the idea. The trend is about as subtle as a marching band. The silver lining? Payrolls jumped by 119,000 after August’s 4,000-job loss. Back in capital-market land, the ice is st

For the week ended 11/15/2025. Well, it’s finally over – and by “it,” I mean the government shutdown, which felt like an extended episode of Will They, Won’t They?  that no one asked for. The damage? We’ve all been flying a little blind on the data front. The latest casualty was CPI, which was supposed to drop last Thursday. Instead, we’re still clinging to September’s figures like a bad high-school yearbook photo. Q3 GDP? Same black box. No bueno. While we wait for the data

For the week ended 11/8/2025. Could it be the cracks are starting to appear? Hard to tell if you’re simply following the thin stream of economic data points. Last week’s highlights were few: ADP reported nonfarm employment up by 42,000 jobs in October after a 29,000 loss in September, and the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing release made its usual attempt at drama. Since we may be relying on private-sector data for a while, let’s take a quick detour into wh

For the week ended 11/1/2025. Okay, what do we have on this first week of November? Not much in the way of government-supplied data – something to do with a shutdown? No GDP estimate last week, but we did get another 25-bps rate cut from the FOMC (more on that in a moment). And consumers remain somewhat confident, if not increasingly picky. Meanwhile, from a sketchy corner of the internet, I learned that NASA is tracking a possibly intelligent  comet (3I/ATLAS), water buffalo

For the week ended 10/25/2025. Well, it took a bit longer than usual, but the Labor Department finally produced September’s inflation report – and it came in at 3.0%. That’s higher than August’s rate and ties January for the high-water mark of 2025. Cue the financial media’s collective sigh of “it could’ve been worse,” as the reading came in just below economist expectations, fueling chatter for yet another rate cut this week – and possibly one more before year-end. But let’s

For the week ended 10/18/2025. Warm days and cold evenings – yes, we must be in the thick of fall. And with that sliver of meteorological expertise, let’s get to the market musings. Let’s start with something shiny. Gold has broken out again – the third major surge since the 1970s. The yellow metal has more than doubled in just 18 months, echoing its epic runs in 1979–80 and 2010–11. Both times, investors fretted that the Fed was letting inflation eat away at the dollar. Add

For the week ended 10/04/2025. Welcome to October. Before you take a sip of that increasingly expensive Java, let’s talk confidence –...

For the week ended 9/27/25. Good morning and welcome to Monday. Take a sip of your brew and let’s dive in. First off, the third revision...

For the week ended 9/20/2025. Welcome to the week and yet another glorious fall day. Let’s get right into it, shall we? As we all know by...

For the week ended 9/13/25. Welcome to the second half of September. And for those football fans in the audience, you’re either...

For the week ended 9/6/2025. Welcome back after our Labor Day breather. Let’s jump straight into the skillet. Consumer confidence took a...

For the week ended 8/23/25. So here we are again. Jerome Powell strolled into Jackson Hole and, for the first time in a while, cracked...

For the week ended 8/16/25. First the good news: year-over-year inflation held steady in July at 2.7%, matching June’s reading and...

For the week ended 8/9/2025. It was the 1970s: a great time to be alive, KC and the Sunshine Band on the radio, Star Wars  in theaters,...

For the week ended 8/2/2025. Much going on in economic land, so refill your mug and buckle in. First, the bright spot: consumer...

For the week ended 7/26/2025. Despite a backdrop of global uncertainty of trade tensions, international friction, and the usual...

For the week ended 7/19/2025. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to fire someone, especially in the court of public opinion, when...

For the week ended 7/5/2025. I hope you had a rousing, fireworks-filled 4th of July and welcome back to another week of data, decisions,...

For the week ended 6/28/2025. Go figure. The Middle East is in turmoil, tariff threats keep popping out of D.C. like rabbits from a...