For the week ended 6/27/26. If you consumed financial news last week, you probably came away convinced the world was teetering on the edge of another crisis. Oil. Tariffs. AI. Private credit. Supply chains. Take your pick – there was no shortage of reasons to worry. And yet, one of the week's most important economic developments barely registered. First-quarter U.S. GDP was quietly revised upward from an annualized 1.9% to 2.1%. Apparently, good news just doesn't generate the

For the week ended 6/20/26. If you listened to Wall Street six months ago, the debate centered on how many interest-rate cuts the Federal Reserve would deliver in 2026. Fast forward to last week's FOMC meeting and the conversation has changed dramatically. Instead of asking when rates will fall, investors are now quietly asking whether the Fed's next move might actually be...up. The Federal Reserve unanimously held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real story

For the week ended 6/13/26. Wall Street has developed a remarkable superpower lately: ignoring bad news. Last week delivered another reminder. Consumer inflation climbed to 4.2% in May, the highest annual reading in three years, as higher energy prices stemming from the now-apparently-concluding Iran conflict worked their way through the economy. Producer prices weren't much better, rising at a 6.5% annual pace, their fastest increase since 2022. Under normal circumstances, h

For the week ended 6/6/26. A funny thing happened on the way to the recession. The U.S. labor market decided not to participate - last week’s employment report came in significantly stronger than expected, adding 172,000 jobs in May versus expectations for only 80,000. Even more impressive, revisions added another 93,000 jobs to March and April payrolls. Combined, the economy has now averaged a robust 188,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, the strongest pace i

For the week ended 5/30/26. Last week delivered another reminder that the U.S. economy is rarely as simple as the headlines suggest. Let's start with the less exciting news. The Commerce Department revised first-quarter GDP growth down to 1.6% from the initial estimate of 2.0%. The primary culprits? Lower consumer spending and weaker inventory investment. In other words, consumers appear to be easing off the accelerator after years of spending money like a teenager with their

For the week ended 5/16/26. Well, so much for the “inflation is under control” narrative. April’s CPI report reminded everyone that inflation, much like a bad horror movie villain, has a nasty habit of reappearing when you least want it to. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, hotter than both March’s 3.3% reading and economists’ expectations of 3.7%. Core inflation – the Fed’s preferred “please ignore food and energy because they’re inconvenient” measure – also

For the week ended 5/9/26. The U.S. labor market once again managed to surprise the “experts” which, at this point, may be the most reliable economic indicator we have. In April, the economy added 115,000 jobs, comfortably ahead of expectations for just 55,000. Yes, job growth slowed from March’s 185,000 pace, but considering the backdrop of the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, the labor market continues to show remarkable resilience. The unemployment rate held steady

For the week ended 3/2/26. Some interesting data points rolled in last week, so let’s skip the warm-up lap and get right to it. First and foremost, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) extended its interest-rate pause, but not without some unusually public disagreement. Several committee members are no longer casually hinting at future rate cuts – in fact, a growing minority now believes rate hikes may become more likely as we move deeper into 2026. That’s quite the backd

For the week ended 4/25/26. The best news from last week had nothing to do with markets – and everything to do with them. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closing the inquiry and a federal judge noting there was “essentially zero evidence” of wrongdoing. Translation: a lot of noise, very little signal. So why bring this up in a market note? Because Fed independence isn’t some academic concept – i

For the week ended 4/18/26. One has to admit – it’s becoming increasingly difficult to talk about what’s driving the economy and markets when, over the past year or so, the answer has largely been… headlines out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. PMI data? Background noise. Retail sales? Afterthought. Consumer confidence? Barely gets an invite to the party. Nothing illustrates this better than GDP. Q4 growth has now been revised twice – from an already uninspiring 1.4% down to less

For the week ended 4/11/26. Welcome to the midpoint of April and just hours away from everyone’s favorite deadline: taxes. In the spirit of joy and government-mandated generosity, let me throw a bit of cold water on the festivities and turn to the latest inflation data. Consumer prices heated up in March, driven largely by a sharp jump in energy costs. The Labor Department reported that CPI rose 3.3% from a year earlier, a notable increase from February’s 2.4% and the hottest

For the week ended 4/4/26. In a world that seems determined to serve up bad news on a loop, let’s start with something refreshing: jobs – lots of them. U.S. job growth didn’t just beat expectations last month, it ran them over. Employers added 178,000 positions, the strongest showing in over a year and a sharp reversal from February’s downwardly revised loss of 133,000. And the economists? They were looking for roughly 59,000. At this point, calling it the “dismal science” fe

For the week ended 3/21/26. And no, I’m not talking about your March Madness bracket getting torched by Thursday afternoon – I’m referring to the steady drip of losses across the markets. At this point, public market diversification feels less like a strategy and more like group therapy. Before we get to that, let’s start with the Federal Reserve. As expected, the Fed held rates steady last week. No surprises – but the tone mattered. Powell made it clear they’re in no rush to

For the week ended 3/14/26. Okay, things are starting to get more interesting. And by that I’m (unfortunately) not referring to March Madness brackets, but rather to a couple of economic data points released last week that may give our friends at the Federal Open Market Committee a bit of heartburn. First up – and something that largely escaped the attention of the mainstream press – was the second revision of fourth-quarter GDP, which showed the economy was significantly wea

For the week ended 3/7/26. Well, good morning and welcome to the first full week of market activity while the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. While this has obviously had a major impact on oil prices, we’ll get to that in a moment. First, let’s take a look at the latest jobs data – and it was a doozy. Bottom line: the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, an unexpected and fairly widespread downturn for a labor market that has been showing signs of str

For week ended 2/28/26. Here’s a plot twist for you: global trade didn’t collapse under tariff drama in 2025 – it accelerated. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the volume of goods crossing borders rose 4.4% in 2025, up from 2.5% in 2024. Not exactly the slowdown many predicted. In fact, the World Trade Organization had forecasted weaker trade growth last year due to U.S. tariff increases. So much for that. Reality check: Several original tarif

For the week ended 2/21/26. Ouch! Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4%, a noticeable deceleration from Q3’s eye-popping 4.4% and well below the 2.5% economists had penciled in. For the full year, growth cooled to 2.2%, down from 2.4% in 2024 – the slowest pace since 2022. Not disastrous. Not dazzling. Just… slower. But before we light the recession candles, let’s apply a little math. Federal government spending declined at a 16.6% annual rate during the shutdown, shaving nearly

For the week ended 2/7/2026. Okay, let’s start with the unemployment rate released last week – oh wait, that didn’t happen. With the latest rumor mill suggesting a Wednesday release, we can once again tip our hats to the lingering side effects of a government shutdown. Consistency is overrated anyway. Moving on to news that actually occurred, the headline act of the week was the continued demolition of Bitcoin and its crypto cousins. It was so ugly that the data provider for

For the week ended 1/31/26. Well, good morning and shall we jump right on in? I say yes! The Federal Reserve hit the pause button last week – and made it abundantly clear they’re in no rush to press play again. By a 10–2 vote, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.75%, with Chair Jerome Powell noting that recent data look slightly better than expected: economic growth has firmed and the labor market may be finding its footing. Translation: unless inflation resumes

For the week ended 1/24/26. As this author so boldly prognosticated just a couple of weeks back (humility is overrated), the latest CPI reading came in largely unchanged. And sure enough, consumer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year in December, matching November’s pace and landing exactly where economists expected. Cue the polite golf clap. Zooming out, inflation has cooled meaningfully from 3.0% in January 2025 to 2.7% today, though it remains stubbornly above the Fed’s ever-el