Shutdown’s Over – Now the Data Flood Arrives

David Halseth
Nov 23
2 min read

For week ended 11/22/25.

With the federal government back from its unplanned vacation, the data spigot has been turned on full blast. Case in point: the September unemployment rate finally hit the tapes, clocking in at 4.4%. That’s up from 4.3%… which was up from 4.2%… which was up from 4.1%. You get the idea. The trend is about as subtle as a marching band. The silver lining? Payrolls jumped by 119,000 after August’s 4,000-job loss.

Back in capital-market land, the ice is starting to creak. More investors are waking up to the rather uncomfortable fact that the top 10 stocks now represent roughly 40% of the entire U.S. market – double the concentration of the past half-century. Add in some growing skepticism around AI capex and future profitability, and suddenly even the Magnificent 7 don’t feel so invincible.

Example: Nvidia’s earnings beat was supposed to spark a rally. It did—for about six minutes. Then the S&P 500 promptly dropped nearly 2% in one of the sharpest intraday reversals we’ve seen in months. Meanwhile, Robinhood has shed about 25% of its value this month, Palantir is down 23%, and crypto… well, if you enjoy horror films, peek at those charts.

By week’s end, U.S. stocks were down 1.9% and foreign markets slid another 3.3%. Commodities and global real estate dipped. Bonds, however, managed a 50-bp move higher. Are bonds back as a stabilizer? Don’t get carried away – FOMC members are still whispering about inflation like it’s the monster under the bed.

This holiday-shortened week brings a full plate: Consumer Confidence, retail sales, the initial Q3 GDP estimate, and a couple of inflation reads. My advance take: grumpy consumers, an economy that refuses to crack, and inflation that remains annoyingly sticky.

With that – Happy Thanksgiving. May your turkey be juicy, your family drama minimal, and your espresso unusually smooth.