Trade Surges… Despite the Noise
- David Halseth
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
For week ended 2/28/26.
Here’s a plot twist for you: global trade didn’t collapse under tariff drama in 2025 – it accelerated. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the volume of goods crossing borders rose 4.4% in 2025, up from 2.5% in 2024. Not exactly the slowdown many predicted. In fact, the World Trade Organization had forecasted weaker trade growth last year due to U.S. tariff increases. So much for that.
Reality check:
Several original tariffs were later reduced.
Only a minority of trading partners retaliated meaningfully.
China redirected trade flows elsewhere.
AI-driven capex boosted U.S. imports from broader Asia.
Oh – and the Supreme Court ruled country-specific tariffs implemented in 2025 illegal. In addition, the current blanket 10% duty is temporary (150 days max), and it lowers the average effective tariff rate to 10.4% from 14.1%, a far cry from the 30%+ headlines we were bracing for last April. For the free-trade faithful? That’s quietly constructive.
Before we move on, one more gem. In the latest Blackstone Inc. CEO survey (102 portfolio companies), when asked whether tariff-related input costs were rising – and what they were doing about it – 79% said they were passing costs through to customers. Anyone shocked? Tariffs are taxes. Businesses don’t eat taxes. They invoice them.
Markets: Peace Dividend (for now). With a relatively calm week geopolitically, foreign stocks rose +2.2% (YTD nearly +14%, +45% trailing 12 months) while commodities & global property were solid across all time frames. Domestic stocks fell –40 bps on AI jitters… again while crypto was lower (volatility doing what volatility does best). Yes, international diversification is finally having its moment in the sun. U.S. equities aren’t broken, they’re just no longer the only show in town.
Looking Ahead - manufacturing data is front and center this week, along with the unemployment rate and jobless claims. In other words, the market will obsess over growth durability and labor resilience yet again.
As always, may your coffee be strong, your forecasts humble, and your productivity spikes caffeine-enhanced. Good morning.
Interesting data point of the week.
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