Jobs Blow Past Expectations… But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet

David Halseth
Apr 5
2 min read

For the week ended 4/4/26.

In a world that seems determined to serve up bad news on a loop, let’s start with something refreshing: jobs – lots of them. U.S. job growth didn’t just beat expectations last month, it ran them over. Employers added 178,000 positions, the strongest showing in over a year and a sharp reversal from February’s downwardly revised loss of 133,000. And the economists? They were looking for roughly 59,000. At this point, calling it the “dismal science” feels generous.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, which sounds great – until you peek under the hood. The labor force shrank by nearly 400,000 people, and participation slipped to 61.9%, the lowest since 2021. Translation: fewer people counted as unemployed because fewer people are even trying. Not exactly the kind of math you celebrate with champagne.

Markets, however, didn’t bother with nuance – they partied. Every major asset class posted gains last week. Cash and liquid alternatives did their usual impression of watching paint dry, bonds finally woke up with a 1.0% gain, and risk assets took the spotlight. Commodities rose 2.3%, foreign stocks gained 2.4%, global real estate climbed 2.9%, and U.S. equities led the charge, jumping 3.4%. Not a bad week, especially with markets closed on Good Friday before anything could ruin the mood.

So yes, we’ll take the win. But don’t get too comfortable. This week brings a fresh batch of market-moving data: a revised look at Q4 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and then the headliner – March CPI. Early whispers suggest inflation could creep back north of 3.5% before year-end. If that happens, the Fed’s “we’re almost done here” narrative might age about as well as milk in July.

For now, enjoy the moment. Just remember – good data in one corner doesn’t cancel out problems in another. That’s not how this game works.

May your decisions be disciplined and your portfolio a step ahead of the headlines.

Welcome to the week.