For the week ended 10/31/26. By David Halseth The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, but don’t mistake sitting still for getting comfortable. By a 10–2 vote, officials kept their benchmark rate between 3.75% and 4%, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring another quarter-point increase. Apparently, two people were ready to turn down the thermostat while everyone else waited to see the utility bill. The statement kept inflation firmly in the crosshairs an

For the week ended 10/24/26. By David Halseth Apparently, teaching computers to think is expensive. So is filling up your car. Last week, investors got another reminder that the AI revolution and the old-fashioned oil market share an inconvenient feature: both require enormous amounts of money. Let’s start at the pump. Brent crude jumped 6.2% for the week to $116.72 a barrel as fears of renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure rattled markets.

For the week ended 10/17/26. By David Halseth Fall temperatures may be cooling, but apparently inflation didn’t get the memo. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year through September, up from August’s 3.4% and above economists’ expectations of 3.6%. Another month, another reminder that declaring victory over inflation is a hazardous occupation. Looking under the hood, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, registered 2.6% annually, while prices increased 0.3% for th

For the week ended 10/10/26. By David Halseth The American consumer appears to have perfected a peculiar skill: complaining about the economy while keeping it afloat. Confidence is lousy, prices are frustrating, and apparently none of that is enough to stop us from buying another couch. Household spending rose 6.1% in the 12 months through August, up from 4.3% growth at the end of last year. One important distinction: those are dollars spent, so higher prices account for some

For the week ended 10/3/26. By David Halseth Welcome to the fourth quarter! The economy received an upgrade last week. Bond investors would probably settle for a refund. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised from 1.5% to 2.2%, while first-quarter growth now stands at 2.1%. That paints a steadier picture of economic expansion despite higher borrowing costs, tariffs and expensive energy. The American consumer continues doing the heavy lifting. Spending jumped 0.9% in August, al

For the week ended 9/26/26. By David Halseth Good morning! If you were hoping the recent pause in the bond rout meant borrowing costs were about to behave, the mortgage market has a message for you: 7.03%. That was the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage last week, according to Freddie Mac. Anyone who locked in a rate below 3% during the pandemic may now regard that mortgage as a family heirloom. Consumers are feeling the squeeze. The University of Michigan’s final Septe

For the week ended 9/19/26. By David Halseth Well, that didn’t take long. After spending much of the past few years debating when, and by how much, the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, we have officially reversed course. On Wednesday, the FOMC unanimously raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% - 4.00%, marking the Fed’s first increase since July 2023. Perhaps more importantly, the Fed’s latest projections suggest policymakers are not necessa

For the week ended 9/12/26. By David Halseth Welcome back to Monday Morning Musings after a week off courtesy of the Labor Day holiday. And with that, let’s jump right back into everyone’s favorite economic topic - inflation. Apparently, it missed us. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% over the trailing 12 months in August, unchanged from July. More importantly, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly hotter than economists expected. That i

For the week ended 8/29/26. By David Halseth Welcome to September, when cooler weather and football return - and, apparently, so does talk of higher interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh surprised investors Friday by sounding considerably more concerned about inflation than many expected. His suggestion that the Fed may have more “work to do” suddenly put a September rate hike firmly on the table. Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 58% probability of an

For the week ended 8/22/26. By David Halseth Last week, gross U.S. federal debt crossed the $40 trillion threshold. The number itself is more symbolic than economically magical – nothing breaks at $40 trillion that was working perfectly at $39.9 trillion – but the trajectory should command our attention. It is important to distinguish gross federal debt from debt held by the public, which is currently about 101% of GDP. Unfortunately, that version of the math is not exactly c

For the week ended 8/15/26. By David Halseth Inflation took a small step in the right direction last month. Just don’t confuse one step with arriving at the destination. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% over the 12 months through July, easing from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, which excludes the food and energy categories most likely to misbehave, also improved, falling to 2.5% from 2.6%. On a monthly basis, core prices rose a relatively modest 0.2%. Some of the relief came

For the week ended 8/8/26. By David Halseth The July employment report delivered a genuine surprise – and not the pleasant kind. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs last month, badly missing economists’ forecast for an 83,000 gain. As if that weren’t enough, May and June payroll growth was revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. When economists miss, they occasionally miss with enthusiasm. Oddly, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. Before celebrating, underst

For the week ended 8/1/26. By David Halseth Artificial intelligence may be reshaping the economy, but in the second quarter, it also performed a rather convincing disappearing act on GDP. The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter and below economists’ expectations of 1.8%. A major culprit was surging imports – particularly semiconductors and other components needed to fuel the AI build-out. Imports are subtracted when calculating

For the week ended 7/25/26. By David Halseth Well, that tariff respite was enjoyable while it lasted. After peaking near 30% in April 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate had retreated to roughly 10.7% by the end of this year’s second quarter. Markets could finally breathe again – or so they thought. When the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s primary tariff authority in February, many assumed the trade war would become less capricious and more constrained. Presiden

For week ended 7/18/26. By David Halseth Before getting to inflation, oil prices and the latest AI-induced market indigestion, congratulations to Spain – the 2026 World Cup champions after a 1–0 extra-time victory over Argentina. At least someone finished the weekend at an all-time high. Slumping chipmakers, renewed fighting in the Middle East, stubborn inflation and the increasingly plausible prospect of interest-rate hikes – investors had plenty to digest last week, and ver

For the week ended 7/11/26. The University of Michigan found itself defending its closely watched consumer sentiment index last week against critics who argue recent methodology changes are making Americans appear more miserable than they really are. The survey shifted from cellphone interviews to primarily web-based responses in 2024, prompting claims that the new format is skewing results downward. Survey director Joanne Hsu pushed back, arguing that the weakness reflects a

By David Halseth For decades, investors leaned on a familiar assumption: when stocks struggled, bonds would help steady the ship. That relationship has been tested in recent years. Inflation, higher interest rates, and tighter monetary policy have challenged the traditional stock-and-bond mix, leaving many investors asking whether the classic 60/40 portfolio still provides enough diversification on its own. That is where private markets enter the conversation. Private markets

For the quarter ending June30, 2026. A Strong Quarter… But not a Free Lunch The second quarter delivered a much healthier market backdrop than the first, though not without the usual fine print investors have come to know and tolerate. Equities rebounded strongly, led by technology, small caps, and emerging markets. The S&P 500 gained 15.2% for the quarter, while emerging markets surged 24.1%, reminding everyone that global diversification occasionally does more than sit quie

For the week ended 6/27/26. If you consumed financial news last week, you probably came away convinced the world was teetering on the edge of another crisis. Oil. Tariffs. AI. Private credit. Supply chains. Take your pick – there was no shortage of reasons to worry. And yet, one of the week's most important economic developments barely registered. First-quarter U.S. GDP was quietly revised upward from an annualized 1.9% to 2.1%. Apparently, good news just doesn't generate the

For the week ended 6/20/26. If you listened to Wall Street six months ago, the debate centered on how many interest-rate cuts the Federal Reserve would deliver in 2026. Fast forward to last week's FOMC meeting and the conversation has changed dramatically. Instead of asking when rates will fall, investors are now quietly asking whether the Fed's next move might actually be...up. The Federal Reserve unanimously held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real story