For the week ended 8/29/26. By David Halseth Welcome to September, when cooler weather and football return - and, apparently, so does talk of higher interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh surprised investors Friday by sounding considerably more concerned about inflation than many expected. His suggestion that the Fed may have more “work to do” suddenly put a September rate hike firmly on the table. Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 58% probability of an

For the week ended 8/22/26. By David Halseth Last week, gross U.S. federal debt crossed the $40 trillion threshold. The number itself is more symbolic than economically magical – nothing breaks at $40 trillion that was working perfectly at $39.9 trillion – but the trajectory should command our attention. It is important to distinguish gross federal debt from debt held by the public, which is currently about 101% of GDP. Unfortunately, that version of the math is not exactly c

For the week ended 8/15/26. By David Halseth Inflation took a small step in the right direction last month. Just don’t confuse one step with arriving at the destination. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% over the 12 months through July, easing from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, which excludes the food and energy categories most likely to misbehave, also improved, falling to 2.5% from 2.6%. On a monthly basis, core prices rose a relatively modest 0.2%. Some of the relief came

For the week ended 8/8/26. By David Halseth The July employment report delivered a genuine surprise – and not the pleasant kind. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs last month, badly missing economists’ forecast for an 83,000 gain. As if that weren’t enough, May and June payroll growth was revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. When economists miss, they occasionally miss with enthusiasm. Oddly, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. Before celebrating, underst

For the week ended 8/1/26. By David Halseth Artificial intelligence may be reshaping the economy, but in the second quarter, it also performed a rather convincing disappearing act on GDP. The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter and below economists’ expectations of 1.8%. A major culprit was surging imports – particularly semiconductors and other components needed to fuel the AI build-out. Imports are subtracted when calculating

For the week ended 7/25/26. By David Halseth Well, that tariff respite was enjoyable while it lasted. After peaking near 30% in April 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate had retreated to roughly 10.7% by the end of this year’s second quarter. Markets could finally breathe again – or so they thought. When the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s primary tariff authority in February, many assumed the trade war would become less capricious and more constrained. Presiden

For week ended 7/18/26. By David Halseth Before getting to inflation, oil prices and the latest AI-induced market indigestion, congratulations to Spain – the 2026 World Cup champions after a 1–0 extra-time victory over Argentina. At least someone finished the weekend at an all-time high. Slumping chipmakers, renewed fighting in the Middle East, stubborn inflation and the increasingly plausible prospect of interest-rate hikes – investors had plenty to digest last week, and ver

For the week ended 7/11/26. The University of Michigan found itself defending its closely watched consumer sentiment index last week against critics who argue recent methodology changes are making Americans appear more miserable than they really are. The survey shifted from cellphone interviews to primarily web-based responses in 2024, prompting claims that the new format is skewing results downward. Survey director Joanne Hsu pushed back, arguing that the weakness reflects a

By David Halseth For decades, investors leaned on a familiar assumption: when stocks struggled, bonds would help steady the ship. That relationship has been tested in recent years. Inflation, higher interest rates, and tighter monetary policy have challenged the traditional stock-and-bond mix, leaving many investors asking whether the classic 60/40 portfolio still provides enough diversification on its own. That is where private markets enter the conversation. Private markets

For the quarter ending June30, 2026. A Strong Quarter… But not a Free Lunch The second quarter delivered a much healthier market backdrop than the first, though not without the usual fine print investors have come to know and tolerate. Equities rebounded strongly, led by technology, small caps, and emerging markets. The S&P 500 gained 15.2% for the quarter, while emerging markets surged 24.1%, reminding everyone that global diversification occasionally does more than sit quie

For the week ended 6/27/26. If you consumed financial news last week, you probably came away convinced the world was teetering on the edge of another crisis. Oil. Tariffs. AI. Private credit. Supply chains. Take your pick – there was no shortage of reasons to worry. And yet, one of the week's most important economic developments barely registered. First-quarter U.S. GDP was quietly revised upward from an annualized 1.9% to 2.1%. Apparently, good news just doesn't generate the

For the week ended 6/20/26. If you listened to Wall Street six months ago, the debate centered on how many interest-rate cuts the Federal Reserve would deliver in 2026. Fast forward to last week's FOMC meeting and the conversation has changed dramatically. Instead of asking when rates will fall, investors are now quietly asking whether the Fed's next move might actually be...up. The Federal Reserve unanimously held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real story

For the week ended 6/13/26. Wall Street has developed a remarkable superpower lately: ignoring bad news. Last week delivered another reminder. Consumer inflation climbed to 4.2% in May, the highest annual reading in three years, as higher energy prices stemming from the now-apparently-concluding Iran conflict worked their way through the economy. Producer prices weren't much better, rising at a 6.5% annual pace, their fastest increase since 2022. Under normal circumstances, h

For the week ended 6/6/26. A funny thing happened on the way to the recession. The U.S. labor market decided not to participate - last week’s employment report came in significantly stronger than expected, adding 172,000 jobs in May versus expectations for only 80,000. Even more impressive, revisions added another 93,000 jobs to March and April payrolls. Combined, the economy has now averaged a robust 188,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, the strongest pace i

For the week ended 5/30/26. Last week delivered another reminder that the U.S. economy is rarely as simple as the headlines suggest. Let's start with the less exciting news. The Commerce Department revised first-quarter GDP growth down to 1.6% from the initial estimate of 2.0%. The primary culprits? Lower consumer spending and weaker inventory investment. In other words, consumers appear to be easing off the accelerator after years of spending money like a teenager with their

For the week ended 5/16/26. Well, so much for the “inflation is under control” narrative. April’s CPI report reminded everyone that inflation, much like a bad horror movie villain, has a nasty habit of reappearing when you least want it to. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, hotter than both March’s 3.3% reading and economists’ expectations of 3.7%. Core inflation – the Fed’s preferred “please ignore food and energy because they’re inconvenient” measure – also

For the week ended 5/9/26. The U.S. labor market once again managed to surprise the “experts” which, at this point, may be the most reliable economic indicator we have. In April, the economy added 115,000 jobs, comfortably ahead of expectations for just 55,000. Yes, job growth slowed from March’s 185,000 pace, but considering the backdrop of the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, the labor market continues to show remarkable resilience. The unemployment rate held steady

For the week ended 3/2/26. Some interesting data points rolled in last week, so let’s skip the warm-up lap and get right to it. First and foremost, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) extended its interest-rate pause, but not without some unusually public disagreement. Several committee members are no longer casually hinting at future rate cuts – in fact, a growing minority now believes rate hikes may become more likely as we move deeper into 2026. That’s quite the backd

For the week ended 4/25/26. The best news from last week had nothing to do with markets – and everything to do with them. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closing the inquiry and a federal judge noting there was “essentially zero evidence” of wrongdoing. Translation: a lot of noise, very little signal. So why bring this up in a market note? Because Fed independence isn’t some academic concept – i

For the week ended 4/18/26. One has to admit – it’s becoming increasingly difficult to talk about what’s driving the economy and markets when, over the past year or so, the answer has largely been… headlines out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. PMI data? Background noise. Retail sales? Afterthought. Consumer confidence? Barely gets an invite to the party. Nothing illustrates this better than GDP. Q4 growth has now been revised twice – from an already uninspiring 1.4% down to less