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Jobs Blow Past Expectations… But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet
For the week ended 4/4/26. In a world that seems determined to serve up bad news on a loop, let’s start with something refreshing: jobs – lots of them. U.S. job growth didn’t just beat expectations last month, it ran them over. Employers added 178,000 positions, the strongest showing in over a year and a sharp reversal from February’s downwardly revised loss of 133,000. And the economists? They were looking for roughly 59,000. At this point, calling it the “dismal science” fe
David Halseth
11 hours ago2 min read


Five Weeks Down—and Still No Answers
For the week ended 3/28/26 Normally, I’d kick things off with last week’s economic data. This week? Not much to see there. Instead, markets are doing what they always do when uncertainty spikes – overreact first, ask questions later. And the source of that uncertainty is obvious: the escalating situation in the Middle East. Markets don’t need outcomes, they just need ambiguity. And right now, we’ve got plenty of it. Let’s address the elephant stomping around the room. The S&P
David Halseth
Mar 292 min read


Well…this is getting uncomfortable.
For the week ended 3/21/26. And no, I’m not talking about your March Madness bracket getting torched by Thursday afternoon – I’m referring to the steady drip of losses across the markets. At this point, public market diversification feels less like a strategy and more like group therapy. Before we get to that, let’s start with the Federal Reserve. As expected, the Fed held rates steady last week. No surprises – but the tone mattered. Powell made it clear they’re in no rush to
David Halseth
Mar 222 min read


GDP Gets Cut in Half While Oil Jumps Around Like a Bug on a Hot Plate
For the week ended 3/14/26. Okay, things are starting to get more interesting. And by that I’m (unfortunately) not referring to March Madness brackets, but rather to a couple of economic data points released last week that may give our friends at the Federal Open Market Committee a bit of heartburn. First up – and something that largely escaped the attention of the mainstream press – was the second revision of fourth-quarter GDP, which showed the economy was significantly wea
David Halseth
Mar 152 min read
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