Oops, He Did It Again: Powell Cuts, Inflation Grins

For week ended 12/14/25.

“Oops… I did it again.” That may well be what Jerome Powell is muttering under his

breath this morning. Much like Britney Spears reflecting on some questionable early-

2000s choices (we’ll skip the music video visuals), the Fed Chair now gets to look back

at yet another rate cut delivered in the face of rising inflation indicators.

Yes, for the third meeting in a row, the FOMC trimmed the federal funds rate by 25 basis

points, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75%—a three-year low. The stated

goal? Insurance against a sharper-than-expected slowdown in hiring.

A brief note to the FOMC, should any of you be MMM readers: layoffs driven by AI

adoption and sharply reduced immigration are not meaningfully influenced by shaving a

quarter-point off borrowing costs. Structural labor shifts are not cyclical hiccups.

Weakness tied to “creative destruction” is part of the deal in a dynamic economy, and

it’s likely to stick around longer than policymakers would prefer.

Stepping off the soapbox, the vote itself raised eyebrows. The decision passed 9–3,

marking the first time in six years that three officials dissented. Two believed no cut was

warranted; one argued for a larger 50-bp move. To Chairman Powell’s credit, he used

the post-meeting press conference to signal a meaningfully higher bar for further cuts.

Translation: don’t expect a rate-cut conveyor belt.

Markets, for once, shrugged. Domestic equities slipped roughly 60 basis points on the

week. Commodity investors finally decided that precious metals may have gotten a bit

ahead of themselves, dragging the broader commodity complex down 2.6%. And for the

long-suffering bond crowd—yes, you too managed to lose money again. Bonds fell

about 20 basis points as yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury rising from

4.04% to 4.18% and the 30-year climbing from 4.69% to 4.77%.

Looking ahead, we may finally see November unemployment data (October is

apparently lost to history), along with fresh inflation readings—also skipping straight

from September to November. Bureaucracy at its finest.

With that, enjoy the eggnog, embrace the holiday cheer, and remember: there are just

nine days left to buy gifts for people you care about… and zero days left to pretend

inflation is “solved.”

Interesting dats point of the week.