Gold, Oil, and the Curious Case of Everything Going Up

David Halseth
Oct 19
2 min read

For the week ended 10/18/2025.

Warm days and cold evenings – yes, we must be in the thick of fall. And with that sliver of meteorological expertise, let’s get to the market musings.

Let’s start with something shiny. Gold has broken out again – the third major surge since the 1970s. The yellow metal has more than doubled in just 18 months, echoing its epic runs in 1979–80 and 2010–11. Both times, investors fretted that the Fed was letting inflation eat away at the dollar. Add in some political noise about Fed independence (hello, déjà vu), and the parallels get even more interesting. The question: will this third time finally be the charm? This author doubts it.

Meanwhile, oil finds itself in the opposite position, in a deep bear market. The glut (thank you, OPEC) and softening global demand have driven crude down to roughly $57 a barrel, its lowest level since the COVID crash. That’s far below the $90–$100 range producers say they need for new capital investment. Translation: expect cutbacks, layoffs, and the occasional CEO muttering something unprintable.

Now, onto jobs. While the broader labor market remains murky, we do know unemployment claims among federal workers have spiked – from 588 just a few weeks ago to 7,244 last week, the highest since 2019. I believe this has something to do with a shutdown. Still, in true market fashion, investors shrugged it off: stocks rose 1.7% last week and are now up a robust 14.5% for the year. Bonds tacked on another 50 bps and stand +7.2% YTD.

The kicker? For the first time in a long while, no major asset class is negative over the trailing week, YTD, or even the past year. Not bad for an economy supposedly tiptoeing toward a slowdown.

So, as you grab your Monday coffee (or something stronger), take comfort: despite all the gloomy headlines, your portfolio is probably doing just fine.

Enjoy the week – and maybe, just maybe, buy your barista a tip in gold leaf.