Tech Wobbles, Bonds Shine, and CPI Is MIA

David Halseth
Nov 16
2 min read

For the week ended 11/15/2025.

Well, it’s finally over – and by “it,” I mean the government shutdown, which felt like an extended episode of Will They, Won’t They? that no one asked for. The damage? We’ve all been flying a little blind on the data front. The latest casualty was CPI, which was supposed to drop last Thursday. Instead, we’re still clinging to September’s figures like a bad high-school yearbook photo. Q3 GDP? Same black box. No bueno.

While we wait for the data floodgates to reopen, markets have been doing their usual impression of a caffeinated squirrel. Tech shares took a temporary hit last week as investors briefly remembered that AI capex isn’t a bottomless money pit and earnings don’t grow to the sky. Several members of the Magnificent 7 saw intraday volatility spicy enough to make even their die-hard fans reach for the Tums.

And let’s be honest: there are reasons to squint at the U.S. equity market these days. Let me drop two into your morning coffee:

First, the market is… expensive. As of October’s end, the forward P/E sits at 22.9x – basically kissing the upper boundary of anything we’ve seen since 1993, except for a few select, and disastrous, moments. Historically, when valuations have stretched this far, the following five-year returns have been, shall we say, politely underwhelming.

Second, concentration risk is off the charts. For five decades, the top 10 stocks typically made up 17% – 22% of total market cap. And they rotated! Of the top names in 2015, only four are still on the list today. Flash forward: the top 10 now account for nearly 40% of the market. If that doesn’t bump your concern level, go ahead and ChatGPT “concentration risk” and see what pops up. (Spoiler: nothing warm and fuzzy.)

Now for the good news. Bonds – those patient, unloved, under-appreciated workhorses – are having one of their better years in a long time. After two Fed cuts and a drought of inflation data, fixed income is up 6.6% YTD. Foreign equities are the belle of the ball at 29.5%. And domestic equities are up a respectable 15.8%, even if the path there has been… adventurous.

So yes, call me a Negative Nancy or whatever moniker suits your Monday mood. Most asset classes are in full “Party On, Garth” mode. Meanwhile, those of us in Colorado are twiddling our thumbs waiting for snow so we can escape our screens and stop pretending typing counts as cardio.

Until then, go forth, be productive, and let’s hope this week brings actual data instead of more “TBD.”

Good morning.