Cracks in the Surface
- David Halseth
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
For the week ended 11/8/2025.
Could it be the cracks are starting to appear? Hard to tell if you’re simply following the thin stream of economic data points. Last week’s highlights were few: ADP reported nonfarm employment up by 42,000 jobs in October after a 29,000 loss in September, and the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing release made its usual attempt at drama.
Since we may be relying on private-sector data for a while, let’s take a quick detour into what the ISM Manufacturing PMI actually measures. Think of it as the monthly vibe check for U.S. factories – quantified, standardized, and stripped of the grumpy anecdotes. In short, ISM surveys manufacturing executives on whether conditions are getting better, worse, or staying the same across categories like new orders, production, employment, inventories, and supplier deliveries.
The magic number:
• Above 50 → Expansion (factories are humming)
• Below 50 → Contraction (factories are grumbling)
• Exactly 50 → Flat (coffee needed)
The latest print? 48.7, slightly worse than expected. But don’t dump your portfolio just yet – this indicator is notoriously jumpy and often revised later.
Meanwhile, the market’s infatuation with all things AI stumbled. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its worst week since spring, falling 3%. Meta and Microsoft both dropped 4%, while Nvidia slid roughly 7%. The broader S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and even foreign markets joined the pity party, down about 1.0%. Bonds went nowhere (0%), and cash investors enjoyed a riveting 10 basis points.
Looking ahead, the calendar is quiet, though October’s CPI is supposed to drop Thursday. Given the current D.C. dysfunction, don’t be shocked if that’s delayed yet again.
And while we wait for both data and snow here in Colorado, keep this stat in mind: over the past four decades, the ten largest stocks represented 17–22% of the U.S. market. Today, they’re flirting with 40%. Concentration risk, anyone?
Good morning.
Interesting data point of the week.
