When the Data Dribbles In… but Stocks Don’t Care

For the week ended 11/29/2025.

With the shutdown now fading into the rearview mirror, the promised “flood” of economic data has turned out to be more of a garden hose with air pockets. It spurts… then stops… then spurts again. GDP? Ghosted. Inflation? Still hiding somewhere deep in the BLS server room, presumably next to Jimmy Hoffa.

The one scrap of data we did get was November Consumer Confidence, and – shocker – Americans are grumpy. The index slid to 88.7, below expectations of 93.5 and well off October’s 95.5. Households aren’t exactly popping champagne right now.

But markets? They seem blissfully unaware of human emotions. Risk-on assets had themselves a week: domestic stocks jumped 3.7%, pushing YTD returns to 17.8%. Foreign equities weren’t far behind with a 3.5% gain and a jaw-dropping 30.9% YTD. Even bonds – yes, those chronically depressed wallflowers – managed a lift.

A big part of the optimism stems from investors betting the Fed will cut rates in December. And honestly, at this point, who knows? Powell’s every syllable is being parsed like scripture, while the rest of the FOMC is busy offering competing speeches, auditioning for Chair, or dropping gossip at economic conferences. Clarity is not the vibe.

Looking ahead, we might finally get some of that missing inflation data, and if the stars align, maybe even Q3 GDP. From the private-sector side, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing hit Monday and Wednesday, and ADP drops its latest employment change number as well.

And now, for the moment several of you have heckled me into: yes, crypto. I’ve officially added performance for the S&P Cryptocurrency MegaCap CME FT TR USD index. It essentially tracks Bitcoin and Ethereum – the digital equivalent of the popular kids’ table. And as you’ll see in the 1-year scattergram, volatility remains its love language.

Have a great week, and welcome to peak holiday season. Enjoy your egg nog, and feel free to add “extra holiday spirit” if the economic data doesn’t come through. 

Interesting data point of the week.

Source: Visual Capitalist

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