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David Halseth

Monday Morning Musings

Updated: Oct 28

Given it was a light week on the economic release front, news was concentrated on retail sales for September. Bottom line, consumers remain in a spending mood as sales increased another 0.4% for the month while core retail sales rose 0.5%. Both data points were significantly higher than August and consensus expectations. So, while inflation remains muted and the unemployment rate - while rising - is also benign, more economists are openly embracing the soft-landing scenario. And yes, we are less than 10 days away from the initial third quarter GDP estimate, with the line currently in the 3.1% range - or about the same as the second quarter. Not bad at all.

Return-enhancing assets seem to agree as domestic stocks were up another 90 bps last week, though the clear leader was global property shares, which rose 1.5%. Foreign stocks and commodities were off as the China sugar rush subsided and oil remained weak.

As we come down to the final days of the election cycle, economic releases will take a back seat to political hyperbole. So, you may want to add bourbon to your coffee. Good morning.








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