No Turbulence for Now

For week ended 2/26/2025.

Let’s start the week with a bit of good news, shall we? Feel free to unbuckle your seatbelt for a few minutes (clear skies ahead) and enjoy the data.

First and foremost, U.S. consumers are spending like there’s no tomorrow. Despite a hefty dose of economic gloom, retail sales surged 1.4% in March from February, according to the Commerce Department. Yes, autos drove a big chunk of the gain, but clothing and restaurants chipped in too. Now, before the skeptics chime in, it’s worth noting this report predated the early April tariff madness, though, as we know, many of those trade threats have since been put on ice.

Other spending data backs it up: Americans are still swiping away, though it’s worth looking closer at what we’re actually buying. Airline travel? Way down. Online electronics? Way up. As they say, pick your poison, or your vodka.

The markets certainly noticed. Last week, domestic stocks clawed back nearly half of their 2025 losses, jumping a full 4.6% and leading all asset classes. Foreign shares followed with a respectable 2.8% gain. Even bonds got in on the fun, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index rising 70 basis points. Only commodities lagged, slipping 20 basis points. Year-to-date, equities are bookending the performance table: foreign stocks are up 7.5%, while domestic shares are still down 5.7%. Call me weird, but it’s nice to see a little diversification show up in the equity world.

Enjoy the smooth air while it lasts.

You might want to buckle back up, because this week brings the first reading of Q1 GDP, and many seers are predicting a negative number. Also on deck: fresh consumer confidence data and the latest unemployment figures.

Finally, for the aviation buffs among you: if you find yourself near Colorado Springs, do yourself a favor and check out the new Hotel Polaris at the Air Force Academy entrance. While there, I dare you to try their F-16 flight simulators. Let’s just say my new call sign is "Puke."

Have a good day.

 Interesting data point of the week.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Index Information & Disclaimer