For week ended 3/2/2025.
Prior to the dot-com crash in early 2000, the crucial warning sign was the lack of profitability among the largest tech names of the day. Fast forward to 2025, and while the top 10 names are once again tech-dominated, today they’re producing dollars faster than the Federal Reserve on an all-nighter.
The golden child? Nvidia. Last week, the firm reported—yet again—rising sales and profits over the previous quarter. Top-line revenue hit $39 billion, with net income clocking in at a staggering $22 billion. Yes, Nvidia is more profitable than even Taylor Swift’s entire tour empire (or, for history buffs, Yasser Arafat’s heirs, whose estimated fortune exceeds $7 billion).
The key difference between today’s market and the tech bubble of 2000? Profitability. Back then, companies were running on hype and burn rates. Today, the biggest names in tech aren’t just making money—they’re practically printing it. The question is whether these earnings justify sky-high valuations. History suggests that when expectations run ahead of reality, even the most profitable giants aren’t immune to a reckoning.
Shifting to the broader economy, last week’s Consumer Confidence report for February dipped to 98.3 from January’s 105.3—a notable decline. New home sales also took a hit, suggesting that while Wall Street is partying like it’s 1999, Main Street might be feeling the pinch. Equity markets weren’t thrilled either, with domestic stocks dropping 1.0% and foreign shares falling 1.8%. On the bright side, domestic bonds finally saw some love, rising 1.3%. Hey, it’s about time they joined the rally.
Looking ahead, this week brings key economic data, including the unemployment rate and manufacturing numbers. And if anyone’s still tuning in, Jerome Powell will share his latest thoughts on inflation, tariffs, and whatever else keeps market analysts up at night. Expect the usual mix of cautious optimism and just enough ambiguity to keep traders guessing.
For those in Colorado, I hope you enjoyed the spectacular weekend weather—because, in true spring fashion, winter is about to make a comeback. Don’t pack away the skis and snowshoes just yet. After all, much like Fed rate cuts, warm weather in March is just an illusion.
Interesting data point of the week.
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