Chocolate with a Dose of Civics

For the week ended 4/19/2025.

Welcome back to Monday, and I hope your Easter weekend was filled with just enough chocolate to make up for last week’s market noise. Thankfully, markets were closed on Good Friday, which spared investors from reacting in real time to the political vitriol ricocheting through the headlines.

Let’s recap the highlights, or lowlights, depending on your perspective. Tensions flared between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump declared, “termination cannot come fast enough,” while Powell coolly countered with, “Our independence is a matter of law.” And in case there was any doubt, Trump doubled down with, “If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me.”

Now, I don’t like wading into political mud, but allow me this brief public service announcement: You absolutely want an independent central bank. History has not been kind to countries where the central bank takes orders from elected officials. Just ask the citizens of Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, or South Sudan, central bank puppetry rarely ends in prosperity.

Moving on before this turns into a civics class... We actually got some decent economic data last week. March retail and core retail sales came in better than expected, offering a glimmer of hope that we may dodge a recession, at least for now. Initial jobless claims also came in slightly below expectations. And thanks to markets being closed on Friday (again, thank goodness), the S&P 500 managed to post a modest 0.3% gain for the week. No, it’s not champagne-worthy, but in this environment, we’ll take the win.

The real stars of the week were foreign equities, which surged 4.3%, and global real estate, up 5.2%. Even bonds managed to stay in the black. As it stands, most asset classes tracked by Monday Morning Musings are up year-to-date, except for one glaring exception: domestic stocks, which are down a sobering 9.8%. Yep, still looking for that bounce.

Looking ahead, it’s a light week on the economic calendar. New and existing home sales are the marquee releases. That’s probably for the best, since most of the attention (and oxygen) will remain on Washington’s latest political theatrics.

So sip that coffee, or pour something stronger, and remember: in a world where headlines whiplash faster than market swings, staying productive may be the most radical thing you can do. Our economy is counting on you.

Interesting data point of the week.

Source: Visual Capitalist

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