Markets by Headline, Not by Data

David Halseth
Apr 19
2 min read

For the week ended 4/18/26.

One has to admit – it’s becoming increasingly difficult to talk about what’s driving the economy and markets when, over the past year or so, the answer has largely been… headlines out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. PMI data? Background noise. Retail sales? Afterthought. Consumer confidence? Barely gets an invite to the party.

Nothing illustrates this better than GDP. Q4 growth has now been revised twice – from an already uninspiring 1.4% down to less than half that level. And the market reaction? Essentially a shrug. In a different era, that would have moved markets. Today, it barely registers. Even inflation – normally the belle of the ball – has taken a back seat to the ongoing soap opera between the Oval Office and the Fed.

So, for this week, let’s call it what it is and throw in the towel: geopolitics is driving the bus. Specifically, the on-again, off-again U.S. – Iran situation is dictating moves across oil, bonds, equities – you name it.

Case in point: last week’s rally. Domestic stocks surged 4.5%, wiping out earlier 2026 losses and pushing markets back into positive territory. All thanks to headlines suggesting a potential deal was imminent. A senior Iranian official claimed the Strait of Hormuz was effectively open, while the U.S. maintained its naval blockade. And as of Sunday morning? A completely different narrative is emerging. Stability, thy name is not geopolitics.

Elsewhere, risk assets joined the party. Crypto popped 6.0% (apparently unfazed by the fact that North Korea accounted for roughly $2 billion, or 60%, of global crypto theft last year… confidence is a funny thing). Global real estate climbed 3.3%, and foreign equities added 2.6%. Meanwhile, commodities slid as oil prices softened on hopes of de-escalation.

Year-to-date, things actually look… respectable. Commodities and foreign equities are still sporting double-digit gains, while fixed income continues its ongoing impression of a treadmill – lots of movement, not much progress. Crypto? Let’s just say volatility remains its core competency.

Looking ahead, yes, we’ll get the usual suspects – retail sales and PMI data – but let’s not kid ourselves. Markets will continue to hang on every geopolitical headline.

So with that, keep your coffee strong and your portfolio diversified, because right now, fundamentals are playing second fiddle to the news cycle.

Good morning.