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David Halseth

Inflation Is Cumulative

For the week ended 11/16/2024.

Why do we keep talking about inflation? Well, aside from the point it has been the most cited reason for the election's red wave, the very nature of inflation means its effects will be with us for years. Yes, price increases are moderating (October's reading came in at 2.6%), but that does not mean prices are reversing, which is the silly narrative we continue to hear. Even the venerable 60 Minutes doesn't seem to understand as one of their journalists last week questioned a small business owner why she was so concerned with inflation, given its moderating trend. Her look at the question told us everything.

So yes, the rate of price increases is moderating. But cumulatively prices are up an average of 20% in the past few years. Items such as dining out, hotels, diverse types of

insurance, rents, and on are up 30% - 40%. So yes, we will keep talking about inflation for some time to come. Sorry about that.

In part due to the October inflation report, the markets gave back a portion of the prior week's outsized gains. Stocks were down -2.0%, while bonds fell -0.8%. Expect more volatility in the days ahead. And with that, may you have a good morning.




Interesting data point for the week.


Source: Visual Capitalist




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