Jobs, Markets, and a Bromance Breakup

For the week ended 6/7/2025.

Top of the morning to you! Hopefully, you're as excited to read this edition of Monday Morning Musings as I was to write it, though full disclosure, I had the benefit of coffee and a minor existential crisis about the national debt.

Let’s start with the labor market. U.S. job growth cooled a bit in May, with 139,000 new positions added. While that figure technically beat expectations, a closer look shows employers are treading carefully—no surprise, given the fog of tariff uncertainty still hanging overhead like a bad forecast.

On the brighter side, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% for the fourth month in a row. For all the armchair economists who love consistency, this one’s for you—pop the bubbly (or the LaCroix).

Now to the markets. Domestic stocks tacked on another 1.5% last week, with foreign equities close behind at 1.2%. But the star of the show? Commodities, which leapt 3.4% amid a swirl of chatter about rare earths, precious metals, and which countries are hoarding what. A word to the wise: if you're tempted to chase short-term moves in this space, just remember, you’re likely competing with sovereign wealth funds and shadowy insiders. Tread carefully, or you might get smoked faster than a brisket in Austin.

And the bond market? Well, it continued its now-familiar slide, down another 44 basis points. Investor angst over our ballooning federal debt has pushed long-term Treasury yields to nearly 5%, signaling waning demand and a growing sense of “Wait… how are we going to pay for all this again?” Even the once-budding bromance between the West Wing and a certain entrepreneur went cold. And spoiler alert: the entrepreneur is right – see the May 19th edition of MMM for details if you need a refresher.

So here we are: jobs holding up (barely), stocks trying to grind higher, commodities making noise, and bonds... well, let's pour one out for our fixed-income friends.

Have a productive week, dear reader. May your days be caffeinated and your portfolio moves a bit more deliberately than the average Washington policy shift. Good morning. 

Interesting data point of the week.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Index Information & Disclaimer