Let’s Just Rip the Band-Aid Off, Shall We?

For week ended 4/5/2025.

In case you missed it, and let’s be honest, most did, the U.S. added 228,000 jobs last month. That’s a full 70,000 above the 12-month average of 158,000. Impressive in its own right, but downright heroic given all the headline-grabbing federal layoffs. Yes, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, but that’s largely because more people re-entered the labor force. Apparently, folks are feeling confident enough to start job hunting again, a sure sign the economy isn’t rolling over just yet.

Alright, now onto the juicy stuff. Let’s talk about Liberation Day, or as markets now refer to it: Tariffgeddon. The Trump administration’s new round of tariffs officially took effect, sparking a flurry of reciprocal measures from our global trading partners. If you caught last week’s MMM, you already know this was coming. What’s new is how ugly it’s gotten, fast. Total tariffs on Chinese goods are now north of 65%, with the EU slapped with a shiny new 20% tariff. Because nothing says “economic strategy” like a self-inflicted trade war.

The result? A $6.6 trillion (yes, with a T) wipeout in global equity value over just two days. The Magnificent Seven alone coughed up $1.6 trillion of that, proving once again that tech may be mighty, but it's not immune. The S&P 500 cratered 9.1% for the week, with the Nasdaq doing what it does best in times of turmoil: leading the way down, off 10% and officially in bear market territory. Foreign stocks weren’t spared either, falling 5.6% and nearly erasing their YTD gains. And speaking of YTD, the U.S. market is now off a painful 13.4%.

But hey, before you leap out your garden-level window, take a breath. Bonds finally showed up to do their job, rising 1.1% on the week and 3.7% YTD. Meanwhile, for those with access to private markets (and the stomach for opacity and lag), those assets are up between 1% and 3% in 2025. Yes, pricing delays are real. Yes, these assets are illiquid and murky. But when public markets lose their minds, a little insulation isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Looking ahead, let’s not pretend anything’s going to compete with Trump for headlines, he’s sucking the oxygen out of every room, including this one. Still, keep an eye on Thursday’s inflation print for March and the weekly jobless claims. Beyond that? All eyes remain locked on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

So take a walk in the woods, just watch out for bears. They’re out of hibernation and they’re hungry.