The Inflation Comeback Tour (Featuring $4 Gas)
- David Halseth
- 8 hours ago
- 2 min read
For the week ended 4/11/26.
Welcome to the midpoint of April and just hours away from everyone’s favorite deadline: taxes. In the spirit of joy and government-mandated generosity, let me throw a bit of cold water on the festivities and turn to the latest inflation data.
Consumer prices heated up in March, driven largely by a sharp jump in energy costs. The Labor Department reported that CPI rose 3.3% from a year earlier, a notable increase from February’s 2.4% and the hottest reading in two years. The good news, if we are determined to find some, is that the figure was in line with economist expectations. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.6%, just below forecasts of 2.7%.
Let’s also be honest about what did the heavy lifting here: energy. With the war in Iran now feeding directly into oil markets, energy prices rose 12.5% from a year ago, a dramatic swing from just 0.5% in February. Gasoline prices jumped 18.9%, while fuel oil surged a rather impolite 44.2%. Inflation may not be everywhere, but it certainly showed up at the pump wearing steel-toed boots.
The other major data point of the week was less about what Americans are buying and more about how they are feeling. Consumer sentiment fell in April to 47.6, down from 53.3 in March and below the 52 economists had expected. According to the University of Michigan survey, that is the lowest reading in its 70-plus-year history. In plain English, consumers are nervous, and for good reason. War, inflation, and a slowing economy are not exactly the ingredients for broad-based optimism.
Speaking of slowing, almost no one seems to be talking about the latest revision to fourth-quarter GDP. The initial estimate came in at a lukewarm 1.4% annualized. The second reading cut that to 0.7%. The latest? Just 0.5%. That is not a revision. That is a disappearing act.
Oddly enough, markets took all of this in stride. Nearly every major asset class posted gains on the week, with commodities being the lone holdout. Crypto led the charge with a 9.4% rally — apparently geopolitical instability remains bullish for digital things with no cash flow. Foreign stocks rose 5.4%, while U.S. equities gained 3.6%. Year-to-date, only domestic stocks and crypto remain in the red.
And with that, it is probably time to put the skis away, close the book on a fairly rough season in the mountains, and get back on the bike. Here’s hoping for more moisture ahead, fewer surprises at the gas station, and a little more economic clarity. Until then, keep your coffee strong and your portfolio stronger.
Interesting data point of the week.
