Independence Day (No, Not That One)
- David Halseth
- 1 hour ago
- 2 min read
For the week ended 4/25/26.
The best news from last week had nothing to do with markets – and everything to do with them.
The Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closing the inquiry and a federal judge noting there was “essentially zero evidence” of wrongdoing. Translation: a lot of noise, very little signal.
So why bring this up in a market note? Because Fed independence isn’t some academic concept – it’s the backbone of credible monetary policy. History is littered with examples of countries where central banks became political tools… and the economic results were, politely, a mess. For now, the Federal Open Market Committee remains intact and, more importantly, independent. Let’s hope incoming chair Kevin Warsh keeps it that way. Markets don’t need another reality show.
Away from the soap opera, the consumer once again refused to cooperate with recession chatter. Retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, with core sales up 1.9%, both well ahead of expectations and a clear step up from February. For all the hand-wringing, the U.S. consumer is still doing what it does best: spending money like it’s a competitive sport.
Markets responded accordingly – though not uniformly. U.S. stocks gained 0.6%, while commodities surged 3.6%, driven largely by energy prices (geopolitics has entered the chat, again). Elsewhere, it wasn’t as pretty: bonds slipped 0.3%, foreign stocks dropped 1.3%, and global real estate declined 1.6%.
Zoom out, and the past year’s returns are eye-popping. Foreign equities are up 40.9%, commodities 37.6%, and U.S. stocks 32.3%. Those are the kinds of numbers that make investors feel like geniuses – right before reminding them they’re not. Meanwhile, cash and bonds continue their slow crawl just above inflation (and that’s before taxes take their cut). And crypto? Still the financial equivalent of a group chat you muted months ago.
Looking ahead, it’s a busy week. Consumer confidence hits Tuesday, Q1 GDP lands Thursday, and oh yes – the FOMC meets Wednesday. That one might actually matter.
Stay caffeinated, get outside, and try not to confuse headlines with fundamentals. Good morning.
Interesting data point of the week.
