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Q3 2025: Resilience, Rallies, and a Reality Check
The third quarter was anything but dull. Markets spent much of the summer digesting a cocktail of Fed rate cuts, political drama, and tariff talk that rattled headlines almost as much as they moved prices. On balance, the global economy proved more resilient than many expected, though cracks in the façade remain. In the U.S., growth significantly increased from its earlier hiccup, confounding sceptics. Consumers kept spending - albeit more carefully - as inflation continued
David Halseth
Oct 15, 20257 min read


Confidence Crisis & Coffee Inflation
For the week ended 10/04/2025. Welcome to October. Before you take a sip of that increasingly expensive Java, let’s talk confidence –...
David Halseth
Oct 5, 20252 min read


3.8% Growth and a Tale of Two Brothers
For the week ended 9/27/25. Good morning and welcome to Monday. Take a sip of your brew and let’s dive in. First off, the third revision...
David Halseth
Sep 28, 20252 min read


Rate Cuts, Market Cheer, and the Magic of Securitization
For the week ended 9/20/2025. Welcome to the week and yet another glorious fall day. Let’s get right into it, shall we? As we all know by...
David Halseth
Sep 21, 20252 min read


Stagflation, Coffee, and the FOMC Tightrope
For the week ended 9/13/25. Welcome to the second half of September. And for those football fans in the audience, you’re either...
David Halseth
Sep 14, 20252 min read


Anemic, Meager, Lame: Pick Your Jobs Report Adjective
For the week ended 9/6/2025. Welcome back after our Labor Day breather. Let’s jump straight into the skillet. Consumer confidence took a...
David Halseth
Sep 7, 20252 min read


Dinner’s Still Expensive – Inflation Bites, Powell Blinks
For the week ended 8/23/25. So here we are again. Jerome Powell strolled into Jackson Hole and, for the first time in a while, cracked...
David Halseth
Aug 24, 20252 min read


The Tariff Tab is Coming
For the week ended 8/16/25. First the good news: year-over-year inflation held steady in July at 2.7%, matching June’s reading and...
David Halseth
Aug 17, 20252 min read


Disco, Debt, and the CPI Hustle
For the week ended 8/9/2025. It was the 1970s: a great time to be alive, KC and the Sunshine Band on the radio, Star Wars in theaters,...
David Halseth
Aug 10, 20252 min read


Shaky Growth, Surly Dissent, and a Cup of Calm
For the week ended 8/2/2025. Much going on in economic land, so refill your mug and buckle in. First, the bright spot: consumer...
David Halseth
Aug 3, 20252 min read


Riding the Wave of Resilience
For the week ended 7/26/2025. Despite a backdrop of global uncertainty of trade tensions, international friction, and the usual...
David Halseth
Jul 27, 20252 min read


The Data Doesn’t Care What You Want
For the week ended 7/19/2025. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to fire someone, especially in the court of public opinion, when...
David Halseth
Jul 20, 20252 min read


Economic Data Good, Renovation Drama Better
For the week ended 7/12/25. Economic Data Good, Renovation Drama Better What can you say? GDP for the second quarter is estimated at a...
David Halseth
Jul 13, 20252 min read


Q2 2025 Financial Report: A Return to Normalcy? Almost.
Ignore the noise from D.C., and things are looking surprisingly solid. Yes, Q1 GDP hit a wall, but mostly because businesses and savvy...
David Halseth
Jul 9, 20257 min read


Back to Reality, Markets and All
For the week ended 7/5/2025. I hope you had a rousing, fireworks-filled 4th of July and welcome back to another week of data, decisions,...
David Halseth
Jul 6, 20252 min read


Chaos? What Chaos? Wall Street Climbs Anyway
For the week ended 6/28/2025. Go figure. The Middle East is in turmoil, tariff threats keep popping out of D.C. like rabbits from a...
David Halseth
Jun 29, 20252 min read


Markets Yawn, the Fed Waits, and Iran Has a Stock Market?
For the week ended 6/21/2025. Welcome to Monday Morning Musings . If you’ve clicked in, I’ll assume you’ve had your fill of geopolitical...
David Halseth
Jun 22, 20252 min read


Tariffs, Data, and the Art of Standing Still
For the week ended 6/14/25. Where’s the Inflation? (No, Seriously.) Okay, where is the inflation? While we’re not quite ready to pop...
David Halseth
Jun 15, 20252 min read


Jobs, Markets, and a Bromance Breakup
For the week ended 6/7/2025. Top of the morning to you! Hopefully, you're as excited to read this edition of Monday Morning Musings as...
David Halseth
Jun 8, 20252 min read


Tariffs, Truces, and a 22% Turnaround
For the week ended 5/31/2025. Back in Action – and So Are the Markets Welcome back after the Memorial Day respite. Hopefully you enjoyed...
David Halseth
Jun 1, 20252 min read
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